春節(jie)后銅價行情走勢(shi)如何(he)？滬(hu)(hu)銅主力(li)合(he)(he)約(yue)1804振蕩微漲(zhang)(zhang)，日內交投于(yu)(yu)53750-53200元/噸(dun)，尾盤收于(yu)(yu)53600元/噸(dun)，日微漲(zhang)(zhang)0.02%，上方關(guan)注(zhu)54000元/噸(dun)的整數(shu)關(guan)口壓制。期限(xian)結構方面，滬(hu)(hu)銅1804合(he)(he)約(yue)和1805合(he)(he)約(yue)正價差維(wei)持至190元/噸(dun)，顯示遠期合(he)(he)約(yue)上漲(zhang)(zhang)意愿攀升。

　　外(wai)盤方面，亞(ya)市倫(lun)銅(tong)振蕩走強，其中3個月倫(lun)銅(tong)日內交投于(yu)7179-7110美元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，現交投于(yu)7158美元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，日微漲0.68%，目前倫(lun)銅(tong)運行于(yu)主要均(jun)線組之上，技術(shu)形態強于(yu)滬銅(tong)。持倉(cang)方面，2月22日，倫(lun)銅(tong)持倉(cang)量為31.8萬手(shou)，周減9186手(shou)，顯示(shi)空頭積極回補(bu)推動銅(tong)價走高。

　　市(shi)場(chang)方面，2月(yue)26日上海電解銅(tong)(tong)(tong)現(xian)貨對(dui)當月(yue)合約(yue)報(bao)(bao)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)260-貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)170元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，平水(shui)(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)成交價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格52820-52960元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。早市(shi)貿易(yi)商(shang)(shang)大量回歸，挺(ting)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)意愿明顯(xian)，好(hao)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)意愿報(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)160元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右(you)，平水(shui)(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)在貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)220元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右(you)，成交多觀(guan)望。10點后，部(bu)分貿易(yi)商(shang)(shang)為(wei)換(huan)現(xian)進(jin)口(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)主動調降報(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，好(hao)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)至貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)180元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右(you)，成交有起(qi)色。平水(shui)(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)報(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)存分歧，國產平水(shui)(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)繼續挺(ting)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)于(yu)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)220元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右(you)，但進(jin)口(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)一路擴降至貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)260元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右(you)。下游(you)逐漸(jian)復工，入(ru)市(shi)補貨量逐漸(jian)增(zeng)多，而下游(you)多青睞(lai)于(yu)低(di)(di)端進(jin)口(kou)低(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)貨源，造成市(shi)場(chang)貼(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)受低(di)(di)端進(jin)口(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的大幅拖累，低(di)(di)端進(jin)口(kou)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)與國產平水(shui)(shui)(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)的價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)拉大至30-40元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)區間，貿易(yi)投機商(shang)(shang)也乘勢壓(ya)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)收貨。

　　日內(nei)，滬銅1804合(he)約探底回升至53600元(yuan)/噸，因(yin)市(shi)場(chang)預計(ji)春節后中(zhong)國銅市(shi)消費預期(qi)好轉(zhuan)，以及廢銅和銅精(jing)礦進口量環比(bi)下滑提振。未來伴隨(sui)著(zhu)旺季(ji)到來，銅價或(huo)保持(chi)震蕩走強態勢。短期(qi)銅市(shi)投資氣氛(fen)偏多，建議滬銅1804合(he)約可背靠53100元(yuan)之上逢低多，入場(chang)參考53500元(yuan)附近(jin)，目(mu)標關注54200元(yuan)/噸。

　　行業方面(mian)，中國(guo)海關(guan)數據顯(xian)示，1月中國(guo)銅(tong)礦(kuang)(kuang)進口量為(wei)162.1萬(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)減少1.85%，但同(tong)比(bi)增加(jia)24.94%，其中進口自墨西哥(ge)的銅(tong)礦(kuang)(kuang)為(wei)145864噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)劇增163.68。