分析電力電纜行業發展現狀

　　電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)作為國(guo)民經濟(ji)中大(da)(da)的(de)配套行業(ye)之一，是各(ge)產業(ye)的(de)基礎(chu)，其(qi)產品(pin)廣泛應用于電(dian)(dian)(dian)力、建筑、民用、通信、船舶、軍工、航空以及(ji)石油化工等(deng)領域。電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)按用途可分為電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)裝(zhuang)備電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)、繞(rao)(rao)組線(xian)、裸電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)、通信電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)及(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)配件(jian)，從2017年我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)行業(ye)細分市場規(gui)模占(zhan)比情況來看，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)占(zhan)據電(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)業(ye)務的(de)最大(da)(da)部分，規(gui)模占(zhan)比35.7%，其(qi)次是電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)裝(zhuang)備電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)、繞(rao)(rao)組線(xian)，分別占(zhan)比20%和15.7%。

　　近年來(lai)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)保持了較快發展(zhan)勢頭，作為(wei)國(guo)(guo)民(min)經濟(ji)的(de)(de)最重(zhong)要的(de)(de)支撐產業(ye)(ye)之一，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)在中國(guo)(guo)有著(zhu)廣闊的(de)(de)市場。根據(ju)近幾(ji)年的(de)(de)情況來(lai)看，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)銷售收入(ru)總(zong)體呈現(xian)上升趨勢，其中2016年銷售收入(ru)創新高達13924億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，2017年電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)銷售收入(ru)出現(xian)小(xiao)幅下降，為(wei)13513億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。隨著(zhu)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)對基礎設(she)施投(tou)入(ru)的(de)(de)加(jia)大，以及新能(neng)源、軍工、海洋(yang)工程、軌道交通、特(te)高壓、智能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)發展(zhan)得到(dao)進一步貫徹落實，市場對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)(de)需求在不斷(duan)增強，尤(you)其是在高端裝(zhuang)備用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)方面，未(wei)來(lai)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)銷售收入(ru)仍將(jiang)進一步增加(jia)。

　　二、全球電力電纜行業發(fa)展情(qing)況

　　電力(li)電纜(lan)(lan)作(zuo)為電線電纜(lan)(lan)業(ye)(ye)務占比(bi)最(zui)大(da)的部(bu)分，近幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)迅(xun)速(su)，從(cong)全球市(shi)場(chang)來(lai)看，2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)電力(li)電纜(lan)(lan)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)模逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加，雖(sui)然2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)后市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)模增(zeng)速(su)有所下滑，但(dan)總體(ti)仍不變增(zeng)長態勢，2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)全球電力(li)電纜(lan)(lan)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)市(shi)場(chang)規(gui)模為2073億美元(yuan)，同比(bi)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)幅為7.9%。

　　從(cong)2017年全球電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)纜行(xing)業市場結構分(fen)布情況來看(kan)，其中亞洲占比(bi)最(zui)大為39%，其次為歐洲和(he)美洲，分(fen)別占比(bi)27%和(he)25%，其他地區(qu)僅占9%。隨著近幾年亞洲等(deng)新興國家經(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)加(jia)快，全球電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)纜的生產逐漸向亞洲轉移，中國也借(jie)此機遇帶動了國內電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)纜市場的快速發展(zhan)。

　　三、我國電力電纜行(xing)業產業鏈分析

　　作為電(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)(de)一個重要(yao)分支，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)產(chan)(chan)業鏈(lian)(lian)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)與電(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)產(chan)(chan)業鏈(lian)(lian)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)基本相(xiang)同，從我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行業的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)業鏈(lian)(lian)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)圖(tu)來看(kan)，電(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行業上游主要(yao)包括(kuo)銅、鋁、橡膠、絕緣塑料以及其(qi)他輔料，電(dian)(dian)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)行業的(de)(de)下游行業則(ze)涉及范(fan)圍較廣，包括(kuo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、發(fa)電(dian)(dian)、通信、鐵路、石油化工(gong)、礦山、船舶等重要(yao)的(de)(de)國(guo)民經濟(ji)領域，其(qi)需(xu)求受宏觀經濟(ji)狀(zhuang)況影響(xiang)較大，屬于(yu)順周期行業。

　　電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜行業(ye)是典型(xing)的“料重(zhong)工輕”行業(ye)，在原材(cai)(cai)料中，銅和(he)鋁是最重(zhong)要的基礎材(cai)(cai)料，占到電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜成(cheng)本的70%以上(shang)。從2011-2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)我國銅材(cai)(cai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)來看，2011-2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)我國銅材(cai)(cai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)升，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)銅材(cai)(cai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)達2096萬噸，但近幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)銅材(cai)(cai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)出(chu)現(xian)下滑，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)銅材(cai)(cai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)下滑至(zhi)1716萬噸，銅材(cai)(cai)價格受此(ci)影響出(chu)現(xian)波(bo)動，原材(cai)(cai)料價格的波(bo)動也必(bi)將影響下游(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜市場。